Study Set Content:
Some drug companies follow a sequence of steps in forecasting and these are as follows:
i. Determine the () for which forecasts are to be used, such as for: production and marketing requirements, budgeting, etc.
ii. Divide the company’s products into
() groups such as by therapeutic segments and sub-segments, ethical drugs, ethical-OTC, OTC, and proprietary drugs or by product divisions.
iii. Determine the () affecting the() of each product category such as: demand, competition, other environmental factors, and their relative importance.
purpose, homogenous, factors, sales
iv. Choose the forecasting () best suited to the job, such as: (), and many others. v. Gather all the available marketing() such as: sales history, market trends, consumer attitudes and awareness level, for the last three years. vi. () the pharmaceutical marketing data, both from internal and external sources.
method, percent to net sales, data, Analyze
vii. Check and cross-check the () resulting from the market analysis: assumptions and hypothesis.
viii. Make ()regarding the effect of factors that cannot be measured or forecasted: governmental restrictions; environmental and other health-related issues.
ix. Convert the deductions and assumptions into specific () and territorial, area, regional forecasts and quota: that are realistic and achievable for the period.
deductions, assumptions , product
x. Apply these to the company’s sales and marketing operations: by () in measurable terms.
xi. Review actual () against targets and revise forecasts periodically.
quarter/semester, performance
Marketing experts claimed, sales forecasting “touches the very ()of the economics of the firm; the efficient allocation of scarce resources and the profitable expansion of resources”.
heart
In the drug industry, there is no known rule or thumb or magic formula in forecasting, as to the best technique applicable for your company’s products and markets. What is actually needed is a “strong feel of the ()” of target markets, the forces in the internal and external environments, towards estimating desired sales and market expectations.
pulse
Briefly, the types of objectives of forecasting can be summarized as follows: i. () forecast, this includes planning the overall current policy and assessing current developments, such as the following:
Short-term
a) Planned/modified production () for OTC/proprietary and ethical drug products.
b) () levels of raw materials and finished goods inventory per product format and size.
c) Complete or partial (() of R&D facilities for expansion purposes: health foods fluids, and related products.
schedules, Pre-determined, shut-down
d) Temporary use of () facilities to meet temporary rise in demand in selected drug product categories.
e) Hiring of () workers due to upsurge in demand, say for vitamins, dietetics and nutritional lines.
f) () casuals/contractual workers due to expected downtrends in the proprietary or ethical drug business.
outside, new, Laying-off
(), consists of preparing an annual budget at the corporate or divisional or departmental level. The sales forecasts is the “soul” of such an attempt to carefully plan the coming years. These includes the following:
Budget forecast
These includes the following:
a) Working () requirements
b()()statements
c) () for the sales force
d) Advertising, sales promo, and other () budget
capital, ) Cash flow and funds flow , Quotas, promotions
Forecast represents Action Guides, that will show probable results of various sales and marketing plans and programs to adequately adopt, exploit, or fight back the economic conditions predicted, or mushrooming of local emerging drug companies aggressively supported by
DOH/BFAD.
covers a relatively long period in the future, practically from three to thirty years, and this includes:
Long-term forecast
a) Planned capacity () of a dynamic business (example: nutritional foods).
b)() product lines and businesses (example: cosmetics and toiletries).
c) The need to replace () equipment.
d) Capital () decisions.
expansion, Diversification, obsolete, budgeting
involves the “long-term trends” without regards to cyclical fluctuations of business volumes in the drug industry.
Long-term forecasting
Consumers or end-users of drug products can be grouped in many ways based on demographic factors such as age, sex, income, or education; psychographic factors such as usage rates, frequency, and motivations for buying; geographic factors such as
cities, towns, municipalities, barangays, and sitios.
is the process of classifying customers into groups with different needs, characteristics or behavior.
Market segmentation
consists of consumers who respond in a similar way to a given set of marketing stimuli.
market segment
in the anti-infectives market for example, consumers may choose the higher-priced antibiotic brands of multinational drug companies, these are the()conscious buyers and they constitute a market segment.
non-price
Other segments include buyers whose primary consideration in purchase decision is mainly () and may opt to buy generic drug products or lower-priced brands of local companies. Other market segments are those wanting()(), better taste and flavor, blisters or foil packaging for purposes of convenience; attractive packaging designs and colors, smaller or bigger sizes, utility of containers or bottles for other uses or product formats widely used and accepted. Drug companies and drug outlets, therefore, fine-tune their marketing activities from time to time in ably meeting the specific ()of one or more market segments by tediously and creatively evaluating the attractiveness of each market segment as a marketing opportunity.
price, efficacy and safety, needs and wants
